The global crude oil market reached a critical juncture in the second half of July 2026. On July 25 local time, OPEC+ held its monthly meeting in Vienna and ultimately decided to keep current output levels unchanged without additional adjustments. This decision was broadly in line with market expectations but did not provide a clear direction for oil prices. As of Asian trading hours on July 26, Brent crude futures fluctuated narrowly around $78/barrel, while WTI crude futures closed at $74.2/barrel, both down about 0.3% from the previous day.
OPEC+ Maintains Output: Balance and Wait-and-See
OPEC+ stated in its announcement that the current fundamentals of the global oil market are generally balanced, but demand prospects remain uncertain. Therefore, it decided to continue with the previously set gradual production increase plan—a small monthly increase starting from Q4 2025—with a 100,000 bpd increase this month while total output quotas remain unchanged. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said after the meeting that the committee noted signs of economic slowdown caused by trade frictions, but supply side tensions persist due to sanctions and geopolitical risks, so it chose to "wait and see."
This decision reflects internal divisions and compromises within OPEC+. Oil producers such as Iraq and the UAE had called for modest output increases to gain market share, while Saudi Arabia and Russia favored maintaining high prices to support fiscal budgets. In the end, the cautious faction prevailed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) previously released its monthly report, stating that global oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to slow from 1.2 million bpd last year to 800,000 bpd, mainly dragged by sluggish economic recovery in China and Europe.
Inventory Decline and Geopolitical Risks Provide Floor Support
Despite OPEC+'s inaction, oil prices did not plummet significantly, partly due to lingering supply-side tensions. The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that for the week ending July 19, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels to 431 million barrels, marking the third consecutive weekly decline, exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories at Cushing fell to their lowest since November last year, which somewhat boosted WTI front-month contract prices.
Geopolitical risks have always been a hidden driver of the oil market. In the Middle East, Yemen's Houthi group recently again attacked Red Sea commercial vessels, forcing some tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transport costs and time. In addition, Russian oil exports continue to suffer from sanctions, with Reuters shipping data showing a month-on-month decline of about 12% in Russian seaborne crude exports in the first three weeks of July, further tightening global heavy crude supply. Analysts noted that despite weak demand, the risk of supply disruptions provides strong support for oil prices near $80.
Institutional Views: Oil Prices to Remain Range-Bound in Short Term
Looking ahead, many institutions believe oil prices will likely fluctuate in a range of $65-$85/barrel in Q3. Goldman Sachs' commodity research team released a report stating that the global refinery maintenance season is approaching, coupled with the tail end of the summer driving season in Europe and the U.S., which will lead to a phased decline in demand and cap upside potential. However, OPEC+'s flexible output cut mechanism and the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) refilling demand—currently at a 40-year low—will limit downside.
Citigroup is more pessimistic, predicting that Brent crude's average price in Q4 could fall to $72, citing rising output from non-OPEC+ unconventional sources (such as U.S. shale oil and Brazil's pre-salt oil) and estimating that global spare crude capacity will exceed 6 million bpd in 2026, a five-year high. Morgan Stanley noted that once a global recession materializes, oil prices could quickly fall below $70.
Investor Focus: Macro Data and OPEC+ Next Moves
The market's focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. Q2 GDP revision and July non-farm payroll data, which will directly affect expectations of a Fed rate hike in September and consequently influence oil prices through the dollar's movement. In addition, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled for August 5 may send subtle signals. If oil prices stay below $80, some members may push for additional cuts.
For Thailand's PTT Group and related energy companies, range-bound oil prices mean manageable pressure on refining margins, but upstream exploration sectors need to carefully control costs. As a net importer of crude, low oil prices can reduce Thailand's trade deficit, but excessive energy subsidies could also strain public finances. Investors should closely monitor the Thai baht-U.S. dollar exchange rate, as a stronger baht would further erode the cost advantage of imported crude.
Overall, the energy market in the second half of 2026 remains full of uncertainties. OPEC+'s output policy, global macroeconomic trends, and geopolitical surprises are intertwined and will be the key variables determining oil price trends. Investors are advised to maintain flexible positions, buy low and sell high within the range, while paying attention to risk management.
