On July 26, 2026, the global energy market experienced a new wave of volatility. International crude prices edged up during Asian trading hours, with Brent crude breaking through the $75 per barrel mark and WTI following to around $73; meanwhile, the European green power market saw spot prices fall under pressure due to a surge in solar generation. The divergence between oil/gas and green power provides clear trading signals for investors.
Crude Oil: Multiple Factors Push Brent to $75
As of 16:00 Beijing time on July 26, Brent crude futures for September stood at $75.23/bbl, up 0.8% from the previous day; WTI September contract at $73.15/bbl, up 0.6%. Traders attribute this rally mainly to the following factors:
- U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected: The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed commercial crude inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels last week, far exceeding the market expectation of a 2 million barrel drop, with inventories in Cushing falling to the lowest level since 2023.
- OPEC+ maintains production cut stance: The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reaffirmed its commitment to the existing production cut agreement at yesterday's meeting, emphasizing flexible adjustments based on market conditions, reigniting concerns over supply tightening.
- Middle East geopolitical risk premium: Tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, raising concerns over shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, with some shipping companies raising insurance rates.
However, demand-side concerns persist. China's Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, with weak industrial activity dampening Asian buying enthusiasm; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI contracted for the third consecutive month, also weighing on oil prices. Analysts expect Brent to trade in a $73-78 range in the short term, with focus shifting to the Fed's July rate decision and its impact on the dollar index.
Natural Gas: European TTF Edges Lower, Inventory Pressure Eases
In the European natural gas market, Dutch TTF futures stood at €32.45/MWh, down 1.2% day-on-day. Thanks to restored flows from Norwegian pipeline gas and increased LNG arrivals, European gas storage filling rate reached 79%, 6 percentage points above the five-year average. Weather-wise, moderate temperatures are expected across north-central Europe in the coming week, limiting cooling demand and leaving the production-consumption balance relatively loose. However, with the winter refill window approaching, concerns over supply disruptions remain, and intraday volatility stays above 15%.
Green Power Market: Solar Peak Depresses Spot Prices
Unlike the firmness in oil and gas prices, the European renewable energy spot market saw notable declines. German day-ahead baseload solar power prices stood at €34.20/MWh, down 12% from the same period last week; wind power output in Denmark, the Netherlands, and other major wind countries remained steady, but solar generation surged due to clear weather, leading to prolonged negative prices during midday hours.
According to data from the European Energy Exchange (EEX), Germany's photovoltaic instantaneous output peaked at 48.7 GW on July 26, a monthly high, far exceeding consumption demand. Between 12:00 and 15:00 local time, the German EPEX spot market experienced negative prices for three consecutive hours, reaching as low as -€8.50/MWh, the third such occurrence this year. This phenomenon forced some photovoltaic plants to voluntarily curtail output and spurred optimization of energy storage dispatch.
Analysts point out that as Europe's solar installed capacity approaches 200 GW, frequent negative prices have become the norm. For investors, relying solely on spot revenue from power plants carries increasing risks, while integrated models such as "solar + storage" or "wind + hydrogen" are emerging as better options.
Carbon Trading Market: EUA Edges Down, Policy Jockeying Intensifies
In the carbon allowance market, EU ETS December futures stood at €68.90/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The market awaits the final vote by the European Parliament on the "2040 Climate Target," with some investment institutions reducing positions to wait and see. Additionally, the transitional implementation rules for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to be released this week, potentially affecting the free allowance allocation for industries such as steel and aluminum, thereby disturbing carbon prices.
Thai Baht Exchange Rate and Thailand Energy Sector Performance
In the forex market, the Thai baht stood at 34.22 against the U.S. dollar, appreciating 0.15% intraday, mainly supported by the stabilization of Asian emerging market currencies and a statement from a Bank of Thailand official about "maintaining policy rate stability." The energy sector of the Thai SET index edged up 0.3%, with PTT Group (PTT) closing at THB 42.75, up 0.47%; PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) closed at THB 146.00, up 0.69%. Analysts note that if Brent crude remains above $75, Thai oil and gas stocks will gain valuation support, while green power developers such as B.Grimm Power (BGRIM) face pressure from expected domestic electricity tariff policy adjustments.
Outlook and Strategy Recommendations
Overall, the spot price signals on July 26 indicate that the tight supply-demand balance in the oil and gas market is unlikely to change in the short term; whether Brent can hold above $75 depends on next week's U.S. GDP preliminary data and OPEC+ production changes; the green power market faces structural challenges, with the value of storage and flexible dispatch resources becoming increasingly prominent. Investors can consider the following opportunities:
- Crude oil ETFs and energy stocks: Use pullbacks to position in Brent-related products, watch U.S. shale oil company earnings.
- Green power hedging tools: Buy put options or participate in green power PPA negotiations to lock in prices and reduce negative price risk.
- Carbon allowance arbitrage: Swing trade EUA in the €68-72 range, watch for breakout moves driven by policy implementation.
Data sources: ICE, EEX, EIA, SET, Bloomberg. This article is as of 18:00 on July 26, 2026. Prices are real-time; investors should refer to exchange quotes for current pricing.
