On July 28, 2026, the global energy market saw multiple signals: OPEC+ officially announced a daily output increase of 400,000 barrels from August, putting downward pressure on international oil prices; meanwhile, China expanded its green power trading pilot scope further, with green power prices steadily declining. In Thailand, PTT Group accelerated its new energy deployment, and domestic oil and gas prices followed the international trend with slight adjustments. This article compiles the latest quotes of the day and interprets the investment logic behind market dynamics.
1. Crude Oil: OPEC+ Supply Increase Suppresses Prices, Brent Falls Below $70
As of the close of Asian trading on July 28, Brent crude futures stood at $69.20/barrel, down 1.5% from the previous session; WTI crude was at $66.80/barrel, down 1.7%. Earlier, at an emergency meeting on July 26, OPEC+ decided to raise the daily production quota by 400,000 barrels from August 1, to ease supply tightness during the summer demand peak. After the announcement, oil prices fell for two consecutive days.
Analysts noted that despite the modest output increase, market concerns over slowing global economic growth intensified—US Q2 GDP growth eased to 1.8%, and Eurozone PMI remained below the boom-bust line. However, geopolitical risks persist: the Middle East situation remains unstable, and Russia's crude oil exports are affected by sanctions. In the short term, oil prices may fluctuate in the $65-75 range.
Thailand Perspective: Domestic Retail Prices Slightly Down
Affected by the decline in international oil prices, Thailand's national oil company PTT announced on July 28 a reduction in domestic refined oil retail guidance prices: gasoline down 0.2 baht/liter, diesel down 0.1 baht/liter. Currently, 95-octane gasoline in Bangkok is about 34.5 baht/liter, and diesel is 30.2 baht/liter. PTT Group executives said adjustments would be made weekly based on international oil price movements.
2. Natural Gas: High European Inventories Weigh on LNG Spot Prices
In natural gas, Dutch TTF gas futures on July 28 stood at €28.5/MWh, down 5.3% from the beginning of the month. European gas inventories reached 88% of capacity, well above the five-year average, and Norwegian gas field maintenance ended, restoring supply, making the market well-supplied. Asian JKM spot prices also weakened, at $11.2/mmBtu, down 2.6% month-on-month.
However, summer heat drives up cooling electricity demand, and some analysts believe natural gas price downside is limited. Thailand, a major LNG importer, has seen PTT's LNG terminal utilization rise to 75%. Lower domestic gas-fired power costs may lead to a moderate decline in electricity prices in the second half of the year.
3. Green Power: China Pilot Expansion, Green Power Prices Hit Year Low
The green power market received a major boost: on July 28, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced the official launch of the third batch of green power trading pilots, adding 12 provinces including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, covering over 2,000 industrial and commercial users. As a result, the average green power trading price fell to RMB 0.38/kWh, down 12% from the beginning of the year, hitting a year low.
Southeast Asian markets were also active: Thailand's Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) approved a new round of rooftop solar buyback scheme, offering households a subsidy of THB 2.5/watt for solar installations. PTT's subsidiary Global Power Synergy (GPSC) said it plans to increase its renewable energy installed capacity share to 35% by 2027, and its green power trading platform's daily average trading volume has exceeded 500,000 kWh.
Notably, the linkage between carbon trading prices and green power has strengthened: EU carbon prices on July 28 stood at €68.5/ton, up 0.3% from the previous day. Thailand's voluntary carbon market (Thai Carbon Credit Exchange) has seen active trading recently, with project emission reduction prices maintaining at THB 35-50/ton, attracting companies to offset traditional energy costs by purchasing carbon credits.
4. Investment Strategy: Seizing Structural Opportunities Amid Short-Term Volatility
Overall, the current energy market shows a pattern of "traditional energy under pressure, green power accelerating penetration." For investors, the following points need attention:
- Crude Oil: The pace of OPEC+ output increases and global demand outlook remain core variables. Short-to-medium-term investors are advised to stay light and watch, focusing on long positions below $65 for Brent crude; long-term investors can allocate to high-dividend oil and gas names, such as PTTEP (PTT Exploration and Production).
- Natural Gas: Before the heating season, replenishment demand in low-inventory countries may drive price rebounds. Thailand LNG importers such as PTTGL (PTT Global LNG) are expected to benefit from widening spreads; consider buying on dips.
- Green Power: Continued favorable policies, and the recovery of green power trading volume and prices will directly boost the profits of new energy operators. Focus on Thailand-listed renewable energy companies such as GPSC, BGRIM, and China green power ETFs.
- Carbon Trading: The global carbon market expansion trend is clear, with long-term bullish carbon prices. Thai carbon credit project developers, such as Banpu Next, have high growth potential.
Finally, note that on July 29, the US will release EIA crude inventory data, and on August 1, the OPEC+ output increase takes effect. Market volatility may intensify; investors need to strictly control risks.
(Data as of 17:00 Beijing time on July 28, 2026. For reference only, not investment advice.)
