On July 28, 2026, the International Energy Forum (IEF) explicitly stated in its "2026 Global Energy Transition Outlook" report released in Bangkok: under the carbon neutrality target, old and new energy are not a zero-sum game, but a dual-track strategy that must develop in synergy. This conclusion provides clear guidance for the energy industry that has long been entangled in the contradiction between "abandoning coal," "abandoning oil," and "ensuring supply."
Why Must We Advance on Both Tracks? IEF Gives Four Core Reasons
1. Energy Security: Old and New Energy Act as Buffers for Each Other
The report points out that during the 2025 European cold snap, wind power output plummeted by 40%. Without natural gas and coal reserves, the grid would have faced collapse. The IEF Secretary-General emphasized: "When new energy output is insufficient, traditional energy is the last ballast stone." Data shows that in the first half of 2026, global natural gas power generation still accounted for 23% of total electricity generation, and frequent extreme weather makes countries hesitant to phase out fossil fuels easily.
2. Economic Viability: Reducing the Cost of Transition Pain
The retirement speed of old energy must match the decline in construction costs of new energy. IEF models show that if all coal power is forcibly shut down before 2030, global electricity costs would surge by 45%; adopting a gradual dual-track strategy, transitioning through natural gas and carbon capture technology, can reduce transition costs by 30%. Giants such as Saudi Aramco and TotalEnergies have begun investing in "low-carbon oil and gas," combining traditional business with CCUS.
3. Technology Transition: The Inevitable Choice before Energy Storage Matures
Currently, the global energy storage cost is still above $0.12 per kWh, not enough to support a 100% renewable energy grid. IEF predicts that long-duration energy storage will not be commercialized until 2030. Before that, gas turbines are indispensable as peak-shaving power sources. The experiences of Japan and Germany show that retaining a certain proportion of fossil fuels can avoid grid collapse risks.
4. Carbon Neutrality Target: The "Exit Speed" of Old Energy Determines Success or Failure
The report emphasizes that carbon neutrality is not achieved overnight. Emerging economies such as China and India still need coal to meet incremental demand. IEF recommends that countries formulate a "phased coal phase-out roadmap" while increasing investment in renewable energy. In 2026, global clean energy investment is expected to reach $1.8 trillion, but upstream oil and gas investment remains at $500 billion, precisely based on this logic.
Investment Insights: How to Grasp the Rhythm of Old and New Energy Layout?
- Focus on Transition Fuels: Natural gas, as a bridge fuel, has strong demand resilience in Asia-Pacific and Europe. LNG infrastructure-related assets are worth long-term allocation.
- Beware of Stranded Asset Risk: Pure fossil fuel companies face policy pressure. Choose integrated energy companies that are actively transitioning, such as Shell and bp, which have established new energy divisions.
- Bullish on Carbon Capture and Energy Storage Technology: These two tracks are key links connecting old and new energy, with a compound annual growth rate potentially exceeding 25% over the next decade.
Thailand Perspective: Dual-Track Opportunities Beyond PTT
Although the IEF report did not name specific companies, its conclusions are highly aligned with Thailand's energy strategy. Thailand's Ministry of Energy recently announced a delay in the coal power retirement plan while accelerating the promotion of floating solar and electric vehicles. For investors, in addition to focusing on PTT, they can also look at Thai power companies that invest in both natural gas and renewable energy, such as Gulf Energy Development's hybrid power plant project.
The IEF report concluded: "The energy transition is not an either-or choice, but a marathon of synergy between old and new energy. Only by advancing on both tracks can we achieve the triple goals of security, economy, and cleanliness." This assertion provides a clear strategic framework for global investors.
