On August 2, 2026, global energy markets presented a dramatic contrast: Asian spot LNG prices, driven by summer heatwaves and supply constraints, broke through the historic threshold of $70 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), while green power trading volumes in several countries hit record highs—a striking “fire and ice” scenario. Behind this phenomenon, the linkage logic between oil/gas and green power prices is being reshaped.
LNG prices surge: extreme heat and supply shortages resonate
According to data from the Asia-Pacific Energy Exchange, the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) LNG spot price for August 1 delivery closed at $72.85/MMBtu, up 7.2% in a single day, setting a record not seen since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The core factors pushing prices higher are extreme heatwaves across much of the Northern Hemisphere, surging electricity demand for cooling, and LNG purchases by utilities in Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia far exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Freeport LNG export terminal suspended outbound shipments for maintenance, and some Australian projects also reduced output due to offshore gas field maintenance, sharply widening the short-term supply gap.
Analysts at Norwegian energy research firm Rystad Energy noted that global LNG supply and demand were already in a tight balance in 2026, and this summer’s extreme climate prematurely triggered the demand peak. European TTF natural gas futures rose less sharply but still climbed to €48/MWh. The widening inter-regional price spread prompted more U.S. supply to shift toward high-priced Europe or Asia, further intensifying the tightness in Asia-Pacific spot markets.
Green power trading surges against the trend: cost advantages emerge
In stark contrast to soaring natural gas prices, the green power market is experiencing a procurement boom. In Thailand, for example, bilateral green power trading volume at the Thailand Electricity Trading Center (TETC) reached 2.4 GWh on August 1, up 35% from the daily average of the previous month. Among this, the average transaction price of solar power remained stable at 2.8 baht/kWh (about 8 US cents), and wind power averaged 3.1 baht/kWh, significantly lower than the marginal generation cost of about 4.2 baht/kWh for natural gas combined-cycle plants over the same period.
“When LNG prices exceed $70, the cost advantage of gas-fired power generation evaporates,” said Jirayu Pongpanan, senior analyst at Thai energy consultancy EnergyQuest. “Renewable power plants not only have nearly zero operating costs, but are also immune to international fuel price fluctuations, greatly increasing the appeal of long-term green power purchase agreements.” In addition, the Thai government announced at the end of July that it would raise its renewable energy development plan targets for 2027-2030, increasing new installed capacity from the previous 10 GW to 14 GW, further boosting market expectations for green power procurement.
Knock-on effects: carbon prices and green certificate markets heat up
The sharp volatility in oil and gas prices has also spilled over into carbon trading. In major global carbon markets, EU Allowance (EUA) futures prices rebounded to €98.5/tonne on August 1, up 4.2% from the previous week; Thai domestic carbon market allowance prices climbed to 320 baht/tonne, a record high. Analysts believe that high fossil energy prices are raising emission reduction costs for thermal power companies, thereby driving up demand for carbon allowances. At the same time, as carriers of the environmental value of green power, renewable energy certificates (RECs) have also seen sharp price increases in the Asia-Pacific region. The price of I-REC (International Renewable Energy Certificate) in the Thai market has risen from $0.8 to $1.1 per certificate.
“Green power trading and the carbon market are forming a positive feedback loop,” noted the International Energy Agency (IEA) Southeast Asia representative in the report “Guidelines for Green Power Procurement in Southeast Asia” released earlier. “When LNG prices are high, companies’ willingness to meet compliance targets by directly purchasing green power or buying RECs increases significantly, which in turn supports green power trading volumes.”
Thailand’s market: challenges and opportunities for PTT Group
For Thai energy giant PTT Group, the surge in LNG prices is both pressure and a transformation opportunity. Although PTT’s natural gas business can hedge part of the spot cost through long-term contract prices, its power generation units (including subsidiaries such as Glow Energy) still face the impact of sharply rising fuel costs. PTT has previously announced plans to convert some gas-fired units to dual-fuel mode and accelerate investment in floating solar projects in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).
Analysts at Thailand PTT Investment News believe that in the short term, PTT’s natural gas business will continue to benefit from upstream earnings brought by high gas prices, but downstream power business profit margins may come under pressure. In the long run, the value of green power assets will be reassessed. In particular, companies with large installed solar and wind capacity that have already locked in PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements) will see their cash flow stability favored more by the capital market.
Investor strategy: hedging and diversification are key
Faced with the current sharp fluctuations in oil/gas and green power prices, professional investment institutions recommend a dual-line strategy: on the one hand, within the oil and gas sector, prioritize companies with low-cost natural gas resources or long-term contracts, such as upstream companies like PTTEP (PTT Exploration and Production), whose profit elasticity is especially notable when both oil and gas prices rise; on the other hand, increase allocation in green power infrastructure funds and energy transition ETFs to hedge against risks from fossil energy price volatility.
A recent report by Kasikorn Research Center in Thailand pointed out that in the third quarter of 2026, green power trading volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by more than 40% year-on-year, while LNG spot prices are expected to remain elevated above $60/MMBtu until the Northern Hemisphere autumn demand peak recedes. This means the economic advantages of green power will persist for at least the next two months, and related investment targets offer periodic opportunities.
Conclusion: the energy market is undergoing structural reshaping
The current resonance between surging LNG prices and booming green power trading is not simply market speculation, but a microcosm of the global energy system’s transition toward low-carbon development. As fossil energy price volatility becomes the norm, the “safe-haven” attribute of clean energy is increasingly prominent. For investors, understanding the dynamic substitution relationship between oil/gas and green power and adjusting asset portfolios accordingly will be a core skill in coping with future energy market uncertainty. PTT Investment News will continue to track relevant price changes and provide frontline insights to readers.
